Despite Policy Tightening Risks, Barclays Capital Remains Bullish
“Global Outlook” research forecast sees continued economic recovery outweighing monetary tightening risks; recommending long position in equities and credit
NEW YORK (March 18, 2010) - Barclays Capital today said in its latest flagship quarterly research publication, Global Outlook: Party Continues, But Watch the Punchbowl, that as the current global economic recovery broadens further, investors will continue to be rewarded for taking risk over the next few months. Concerns about deficits and “double dips” are unlikely to undermine the global recovery, which instead faces its chief threat from monetary tightening, particularly in China and in the US. Despite this threat, the firm recommends investors maintain significant exposure to equity and credit markets.
“We have come a long way since March 2009, when our bullish call for markets raised eyebrows,” said Larry Kantor, Head of Research at Barclays Capital, referring to the March 2009 Global Outlook: Green Shoots Have Arrived. “That call has played out, and markets have benefitted from above-trend growth, below-trend inflation and exceptionally easy monetary policies. While valuations are no longer compelling, equities and credit should continue to benefit from this environment. With the exception of China, policy tightening is not yet appropriate for most economies, and investors should still be positioned aggressively.”
Major themes of Barclays Capital’s Global Outlook include:
- Recommending significant exposure to equity and credit markets, balanced with a short position in US Treasuries and a long position in volatility
- US labor market improvement will establish sustainability of US recovery and place Fed tightening in prospect
- Monetary tightening in China should slow growth in Asia and have a moderating impact on commodity prices
- Europe still lags, but production data points to revival in coming months
- Dollar to continue to perform well; weakness in Sterling appears overdone
About Barclays Capital’s Global Outlook
The Global Outlook research report, published quarterly, provides an assessment of all major economies and outlines the likely implications for global financial markets, including commodities, credit, economics, emerging markets, equities, fixed income and foreign exchange.
About Barclays Capital Research
Barclays Capital is committed to bringing our clients a best-in-class, global research franchise. The firm has a team of 750 professionals covering every Research discipline, every asset class and every region. In 2009 Barclays Capital was ranked #1 for Equity Research (for the seventh consecutive year) and #1 for Fixed Income Research (for the tenth consecutive year) by Institutional Investor’s All-America Research Poll, #1 for Fixed Income Research by FinanceAsia, tied for #1 in Research Quality in the 2009 Greenwich Associates U.S. Fixed Income Investors Study, and was named Best Bank for Credit Research in the Credit Annual Americas Awards.
About Barclays Capital
Barclays Capital is the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC. With a distinctive business model, Barclays Capital provides large corporate, government and institutional clients with a full spectrum of solutions to their strategic advisory, financing and risk management needs. Barclays Capital has offices around the world, employs over 23,000 people and has the global reach, advisory services and distribution power to meet the needs of issuers and investors worldwide.
For further information about Barclays Capital, please visit our website www.barclayscapital.com.